EA Sports NHL 16 came out today and they have given Blue Jackets goalie Sergi Bobrovsky
a 90 rating. That puts him in a tie with Devils goalie Coery Schneider for seventh in the league.
The six goalies ahead of Bob were Price (94), Lundqvist (93), Quick (93), Rask (92), Rinne (92) and Holtby (91).This post is going to look at whether that ranking is fair for Bobrovsky, or should he be ranked higher (or lower)?
To answer this we are going to look at couple of metrics. The first one is quite simple who has the stopped the most pucks at even strength over the last three seasons. Using even strength avoids any issues of a goalies having different power play and in particular penalty kill time. A goalie that had to kill a lot of penalties will naturally have a lower save percentage. Using a three year time frame avoids any small sample sizes and avoids any issues of a goalie having a fluky good season.
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For those who have seen work done on goalies this list should be of no surprise to you.
Bobrovsky rates very highly as expected. He's proved over the last two seasons that his Vezina performance was legit and health permitting is a contender for the award each and every season.
Jonathan Quick is the most overrated goalie in the league. He's along side guys like Fleury, Niemi and Lehtonen none of which are in the best goalie debate. Quick had two great playoff performances which fuel the idea that he's elite. He was phenomenal in both of those runs, but over the long haul of the regular season he’s been unspectacular. He should not be one of the top ranked goalies in NHL 16.
On the other end of the spectrum we find Craig Anderson. Anderson has been a very underrated goalie for the Sens. There's a reason Ottawa dealt away Robin Lehner and this is it. They have an elite goalie on their hands. If he could just stay healthy he would receive much more praise as one of the top goalies in the league.
Next we are going to break even strength save percentage down into high danger SV% (chances in the slot area) and low danger SV% (perimeter shots). This will show us what goalies excel at making the tough saves and who can make the easier saves.
Again this was done over the last three seasons
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The big three of Rask, Price and Lundqvist really shine here. There’s a reason these guys are the best, it doesn’t matter if it’s a high quality chance or not they are going to stop it. Quick and Rinne on the other hand stop all of the low quality chances but don’t do as well on the quality chances. Top five goalies in the league should be better at stopping those high danger chances.
Braden Holtby is most definitely in the upper echelon of NHL goalies but I think a top six ranking was a bit too aggressive by NHL 16.
Bob is about the middle if the pack here. Where he really shines is on medium dangers chances. His save percentage on those in third in the league behind Mason and Anderson. That is what gives him the edge over guys like Holtby and Crawford and what cements himself as one of the best in the league.
After going through this it’s clear that Quick is not one of the best goalies in the NHL and should not be given a top three ranking in NHL 16. He’s great at stopping low danger shots but starts to struggle as the quality of chances improve. Rinne is in the same situation. Holtby is the exact opposite. He is the best at making the tough high danger saves but struggles to an extent with low and medium danger chances.
To conclude Bobrovsky is a better goalie than Quick, Rinne and Holtby and that should be reflected in NHL 16’s ratings. He is better than Quick and Rinne in every aspect except low danger shots, and is comparable to Holtby. Bob gets the edge over Holtby due to his overall better numbers over the last three seasons.
For fun here is how I would rank the top five goalies for NHL 16
1. Tuukka Rask – 94
2. Carey Price – 93
3. Henrik Lundqvist – 93
4. Sergei Bobrovsky – 92
5. Corey Schneider – 92
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@PaulBerthelot 
Columbus Blue Jackets Blogger • 
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